This page lists my publications, along with testimony in litigation and regulatory settings. I also provide example consulting engagements and code repositories.
“Assessing the Mechanisms Underlying Property Diminution Damages,” (with Stephanie Biehl), Natural Resources & Environment, ABA Section on Environment, Energy, and Resources, 2024 [published version]
In this article, we discuss the mechanisms underlying property diminution damages following an environmental harm, ranging from one-time remediation costs to ongoing loss of use and enjoyment. We highlight the importance of understanding these mechanisms to ensure that the damages awarded are appropriate and effective in compensating for the harm caused by environmental contamination.
"Just My Type: Modernizing Analytical Approaches for ‘Minor’ Natural Resource Damages," Superfund and Cost Recovery Committee Newsletter, ABA Section on Environment, Energy, and Resources, 2023 [published version]
Assessing natural resource losses with accuracy is inherently difficult and site-specific, leading the US Department of the Interior to request comments on reliable, but simplified methods for calculating interim lost use values. I discuss the advantages and limitations of two methods (equivalency analysis and benefit transfer) in this article.
“Understanding the Econometric Tools of Antitrust—With No Math!” (with Michael Cragg and Loren Smith), ANTITRUST Magazine, 2021, 35(2) [paper | published version]
In this article we group econometric techniques used by antitrust economists into three broad categories that generally follow a continuum of their specific connection to economic theory: summary statistics, regression analysis, and structural models. By understanding the benefits and limitations of these categories of econometric analyses, a practitioner is well on the way to comprehending the possibilities of antitrust econometrics--and more useful and enjoyable meetings with economists.
Winner of the Concurrences Antitrust Writing Award, Economics Category
"Broken or Fixed Effects?" (with Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Mike Urbancic), Journal of Econometric Methods, 2018 [pre-print | published version | data and code | R package]
We replicate eight influential papers to provide empirical evidence that, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects, OLS with fixed effects (FE) is generally not a consistent estimator of the average treatment effect (ATE). We propose two alternative estimators that recover the ATE in the presence of group-specific heterogeneity. We document that heterogeneous treatment effects are common and the ATE is often statistically and economically different from the FE estimate. In all but one of our replications, there is statistically significant treatment effect heterogeneity and, in six, the ATEs are either economically or statistically different from the FE estimates.
"Natural Resource Damages from Fishing Site Impairments: Evidence from a Repeat Cross Section of New York Anglers" (with David Sunding) [working paper]
Survey data eliciting fishing trips taken by New York State anglers are used to estimate their willingness-to-pay to avoid fish consumption advisories. A random sample of all waterbody-county pairs serve as potential destinations for each angler, reducing attenuation bias in the impact of travel costs on site choice. Repeated cross section data enable site-specific constants to control for unobservable factors that influence site choice. Estimates of the WTP are provided directly by our estimation procedure, yielding more reliable estimates in the case of mixed logit. Flat logit models produce values between $2.91 and $5.96, while mixed logit model give average WTP values of $1.16 to $1.72.
"Quantile Regression for Peak Demand Forecasting" (with Ahmad Faruqui) [working paper]
We demonstrate that annual peak demand days are characterized by both extreme values of predictors (such as weather) and large unpredictable "shocks" to demand. OLS approaches incorporate the former feature, but not the latter, leading OLS to produce downwardly-biased estimates of the annual peak. We develop a new estimation procedure, optimal forecast quantile regression (OFQR), that uses quantile regression to estimate a model of daily peak demand, then uses a loss function framework to estimate a quantile to predict the annual peak. We compare the results of the OLS and OFQR estimation approaches for 32 utility zones. While the OFQR approach is unbiased, OLS under-forecasts by nearly 5% on average. Further, OFQR reduces the average absolute percent error by 43%. A bootstrapping procedure generates forecast intervals with accurate 95% coverage in sample and 87% coverage out of sample.
State of Vermont v. 3M Company et al., (Vermont Sup., Chittenden), written testimony (October 2024), deposition (February 2025)
Confidential Tribal Litigation, (DC), mediation report and testimony (with Mark Berkman), August 2023
American Home Furnishings Alliance, Mississippi Economic Council, and Mississippi Manufacturers Association v. US Consumer Product Safety Commission, (5th Cir.), declaration, February 2023
Stephanie Mackie et al. v. Chemtool et al., (N.D. Ill.), expert report (with Mark Berkman), January 2023
Sid Miller et al. v. Tom Vilsack, (N.D. Tex.), expert report (with Mark Berkman), May 2022
"Value of Lost Load Study for the ERCOT Region," (with Sanem Sergici), Public Utility Commission of Texas, regulatory report, August 2024 [report]
We conducted this study on behalf of ERCOT by surveying residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the ERCOT Region to determine ERCOT-specific value of lost load ("VOLL") values for use in system planning efforts. While separate VOLL values are estimated for each customer class, we also calculated a load-weighted average of the customer class VOLLs to be used for ongoing Commission market design initiatives, particularly the development of a reliability standard for the ERCOT Region.
Confidential Review of Administrative Penalty, British Columbia Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, expert report, July 2024
"HFC Transition in the Grocery Industry: A Review of the Anticipated Impact of the EPA Rule," (with Mark Berkman), Re: Technology Transitions Restrictions on the Use of Certain Hydrofluorocarbons under Subsection (i) of the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, before the US Office of Management and Budget, July 2023 [submitted testimony]
Overall, we conclude that the EPA's assumed capital costs dramatically understate those anticipated by industry and the energy and refrigerant cost savings are overly optimistic, especially for warmer parts of the country (areas that the EPA describes as “less viable” for its only modeled compliant system).8 Instead, we find that the Proposed Rule will impose substantial costs on the industry—costs which could be reduced by relaxing the implementation timeline and focusing on the installation of these systems in new stores, rather than on converting systems in existing stores.
"Proposed Safety Standards for Clothing Storage Units: Comments on the Preliminary Regulatory Analysis," (with Mark Berkman), Re: Safety Standard for Clothing Storage Units, before the US Consumer Product Safety Commission, April 2022
Out of concern for injuries and fatalities that arise from furniture falling or wobbling to cause TVs, appliances, or other items to fall, the Consumer Product Safety Commission (“CPSC”) has developed a Safety Standard for Clothing Storage Units (“Proposed Rule”). In its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (“NPR”), the CPSC includes a Preliminary Regulatory Analysis of the Proposed Rule—essentially a benefit-cost analysis. In this report, we evaluate the methodology underlying the CPSC's analysis and determine how sensitive its results are to its assumptions. Overall, we conclude that the benefits claimed by the CPSC are overstated by up to a factor of 20 and the costs are understated by at least a factor of 2. Considering that the Proposed Rule fails CPSC's own benefit-cost analysis, these critiques only further negate the social value offered by the Proposed Rule.
"Assessment of an Internal Benchmark for Alberta Crown Timber," (with Mark Berkman and Kevin Neels), Re: Countervailing Duty Investigation of Certain Softwood Lumber Products from Canada, before the US Department of Commerce, March 2017 [report | supplement]
We have been asked by the Government of Alberta (or “the Province”) to conduct an economic analysis regarding certain aspects of the allegations that it provides the right to harvest provincially-owned standing softwood timber to lumber producers in Alberta at prices below what would be charged by private owners of timberlands and that these timber sales at allegedly "less than adequate remuneration" constitute a countervailable subsidy. These allegations are the latest in the “Softwood Lumber War” that dates back to 1982... The Government of Alberta requested that we determine whether calculations using the TDA transaction data can serve as an in-jurisdiction benchmark for the stumpage fees paid for the harvest of standing timber on Crown lands. We conclude that log prices in Alberta are not depressed as a result of the Crown stumpage system and, if anything, the Crown system results in higher log prices than would arise under a private timber market. We further conclude that the TDA transaction data can be used to calculate an in-jurisdiction benchmark for stumpage dues.
“Quantile Regression With Applications to Peak Demand Forecasting,” (with Ahmad Faruqui) Re. Peak Demand Forecasts for China Light & Power, presentation before the Government of Hong Kong, September 2013
Economic and Fiscal Impacts of the Vistra Morro Bay BESS Project with Mark Berkman and Gage Hornung, May 2024 [prepared report]
We studied the economic impacts associated with a proposed battery energy storage ("BESS") project in Morro Bay, California. These impacts include regional economic impacts of the BESS Project, tax revenue benefits to the City from the BESS Project, and tax revenue benefits to the City from potential future development on other portions of the property. In total, we estimate that the BESS Project would result in a one-time payment of $11.4 million in tax revenues to the City related to construction plus $12.8 million in additional tax revenues to the City over the first ten years after completion of the BESS Project. Potential development on the Power Plant Property following completion of the BESS Project could result in additional annual tax revenue to the City of up to $1.7 million.
A Review of the National Fire Incident Reporting System and the National Fire Protection Association’s Upholstered Furniture Fire Statistics with Mark Berkman and Stephen Lagos, August 2015 [discussion draft]
The FPA asked The Brattle Group to assess the reliability of upholstered furniture fire death data reported by the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) and the interpretation of these data by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). The NFIRS data have served as the primary basis to estimate fire risks and fire-related costs (deaths, injuries, and property losses attributable to upholstered furniture) since 1980. Specifically, the FPA asked us to evaluate two estimates: 1) the number of deaths attributable to fires where upholstered furniture was identified as the item of first ignition (smolder + small open flame + other ignition sources) and 2) the number of deaths attributable to fires where upholstered furniture was designated as the principal item responsible for fire spread (numerous larger smolder and larger open flame ignition sources). We focus on home structure fires in our analysis. The estimated based on the item responsible for fire spread has only recently been proposed as an additional source of upholstered furniture fire-related deaths. Whether this addition actually improves the accuracy of the fire death statistics is unclear, especially in view of the limitations of the NFIRS data. Addressing this question requires a broader and more sophisticated review of the NFIRS data and its applications. This paper is an attempt to accomplish this.
In re: Blue Cross Blue Shield Antitrust Litigation
Outstanding Antitrust Litigation Achievement in Economics Award, American Antitrust Institute
Litigation of the Year, Cartel Prosecution, Global Competition Review
Laumann v. National Hockey League, Daubert motion granted
D3: Clan of Dan (in honor of Dan McFadden's 80th birthday) [website | Github]
R package: bfe (companion to academic paper "Broken or Fixed Effects?," Journal of Econometric Methods 2018) [Github]
R package: BrattleExtras (utilities for internal use) [Github]
TeX document class: brattlereport (document formatting for internal use) [Github]
